Gondinero Index Financial Education

In July 2025, the global economy proved surprisingly stable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly raised its forecast, expecting around 3% growth this year. This is mainly due to strong business activity in the US and China, along with new government stimulus measures.

In the US, inflation (the general rise in prices) remains slightly elevated, but the economy continues to perform well, with low unemployment. As a result, the US Federal Reserve has not yet lowered interest rates, although calls for rate cuts are increasing.

Stock markets showed a mixed picture: major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta impressed investors with their developments in artificial intelligence. At the same time, new import tariffs imposed by Trump created uncertainty in the markets.

Oil prices continued to rise, partly due to production cuts and ongoing political tensions.

Another key event was the BRICS summit (e.g., Brazil, China, India), where the countries called for stronger cooperation across the Global South and agreed on initial rules for dealing with artificial intelligence.

In short: The world economy remained stable in July, but uncertainties around trade policy, inflation, and geopolitical tensions are still clearly felt.

Today’s market reaction reflects uncertainty caused by trade policy and disappointing labor market data – at the same time, many investors are taking profits. For long-term investors, this could be an opportunity: solid companies with strong prospects may become attractive at lower prices.

After the index had recovered in recent weeks from the “Trump shock” in early April, today brought another Trump shock.

It’s likely that the U.S. President once again tipped off his friends and members of his administration, allowing them to go short and make millions in profits.

And it’s just as likely that he’ll tip them off again when he eventually walks back his tariff announcement (keyword: “TACO” – Trump Always Chickens Out).

Since January 2024, the index has gained around 23%. The outlook remains positive. Anyone holding cash should consider investing now.

In order to gain more stability in the index I just sold the two single shares I had – that means NVIDIA and BYD and invested that money in the European index and in the NASDAQ 100.

Since January 2024 NVIDIA gained more than 220%. BYD lost about 8% in our short liaison and I don’t see any perspective now for the Chinese car maker now. There seems to be too much competition in the worldwide market.